India will likely continue buying Russian oil as the U.S. Supreme Court’s verdict outlawing President Donald Trump’s import tariffs has constrained his trade policy options, analysts said.
“I do expect that India will maintain a healthy relationship with Russia, including on energy,” Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft told CNBC’s Inside India. He added that India could reduce its Russian oil purchases but is unlikely to stop completely.
According to energy data provider Kpler, India has imported 1.16 million barrel per day (mbd) of Russian oil so far in February, lower than an average intake of 1.71 million barrels per day in 2025.
While it is too early to draw data on March and April arrivals, Muyu Xu, senior research analyst for crude at Kpler, said that “market chatter indicates” Indian refiners have refrained from booking April delivery of Russian oil this month following an interim US-India trade deal reached earlier this month.
But following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on Friday that Trump did not have the legal authority to implement sweeping import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Xu said India now has the room to maintain Russian oil imports between 800,000 and 1 million barrels per day.
According to Shidore, Trump’s ability to amend tariffs for reasons such as the purchase of Russian oil or factors unrelated to trade or economics will be constrained due to the court ruling.
